HVAC/R Market Strategy · November 2026
As HVAC/R manufacturers broaden their technological portfolios, distributors face a more complex economic choice: expand their capabilities with them, specialise around selected technologies, or withdraw from activities where the investment no longer creates sufficient value.
By Michele Cadoni · European Market Entry & Distribution Strategy Partner
As HVAC/R manufacturers broaden their technological portfolios, distributors face a less straightforward choice.
Following this expansion may require additional investment in inventory, technical expertise, personnel and after-sales support. Yet the commercial return from these investments is not always predictable.
For some distributors, broader portfolios represent an opportunity to strengthen their market position. For others, concentrating on selected technologies and applications may be economically preferable.
This creates an apparent contradiction.
While manufacturers may seek to expand their technological coverage, their distribution partners may increasingly need to concentrate their resources.
The consequences extend beyond individual commercial relationships. They may progressively influence how distribution networks are organised, how responsibilities are allocated and which business models remain sustainable.
The latest SNEFCCA/Xerfi survey offers a useful perspective on the French refrigeration, professional kitchen equipment and air-conditioning sector.
Based on 2025 activity, the survey reports €6.87 billion in turnover, a decline of 1.5% compared with 2023.
Installation remains the dominant activity, accounting for 62% of revenue. Contractual maintenance represents 14.5%, while breakdown services and after-sales support account for 22.5%.
Over the same period, contractual maintenance revenue declined by 4%, while breakdown and after-sales activities fell by 8%.
The industry's structure is equally significant. Of approximately 2,600 companies, 91.5% employ fewer than 20 people, although businesses with 20 or more employees generate 51.5% of total turnover.
These figures concern installation and service companies rather than distributors directly. Nevertheless, they illustrate the fragmented economic environment within which HVAC/R technologies must be installed, maintained and supported.
The survey does not demonstrate that technical competence is declining or that maintenance requirements are diminishing. It does, however, reveal an industry still heavily dependent on installation activity, with recurring service revenue facing pressure.
This is particularly relevant when increasingly diversified technologies require continuing investment in technical capabilities throughout their operational lives.
The transition towards lower-GWP refrigerants is changing equipment design, safety requirements and maintenance procedures.
At the same time, some manufacturers are expanding beyond their traditional product families or technological specialisations to address a broader range of applications.
Embraco offers one illustration. Historically associated with refrigeration compressors, the company announced in 2025 the expansion of its scroll-compressor portfolio into heating and air-conditioning applications, following the acquisition of Xecom by Nidec Global Appliance.
Such developments can create additional commercial opportunities, but they also introduce new requirements for distribution channels.
A distributor traditionally focused on commercial refrigeration may, for example, be invited to support products serving heat pumps or other thermal applications.
Accepting these products involves more than adding catalogue references.
It may require new customer relationships, dedicated stock, technical training, additional personnel and appropriate after-sales capabilities.
The investment can be significant, while future sales volumes remain uncertain.
The heat pump market illustrates this economic pressure.
Following a substantial European market contraction in 2024, sales recovered in 2025, although national developments remained uneven. France experienced a further moderate decline despite the broader European recovery.
Such volatility can make decisions concerning inventory, staffing and technical investment more difficult to justify.
For manufacturers, portfolio diversification can support growth and reduce dependence on individual technologies or applications.
For distributors, however, a broader product range does not necessarily mean higher profitability.
The manufacturer's interest in expanding market coverage and the distributor's interest in preserving economic sustainability may not always coincide.
This divergence does not affect all distributors equally.
Large, structured distribution groups may have greater capacity to centralise technical resources, finance specialised training and distribute investments across multiple branches or national markets.
Smaller territorial distributors operate under different conditions. Their competitive advantages may include close installer relationships, local market knowledge, technical specialisation and operational flexibility.
However, these strengths do not eliminate the financial constraints associated with expanding their activities.
Consider a regional distributor with an established position in commercial refrigeration.
Supporting an additional equipment category may require maintaining new inventory, training employees and developing relationships with installers operating in a different market segment.
If demand proves insufficient, the additional turnover may not compensate for higher operating costs, slower stock rotation and the resources committed to supporting the new products.
In such circumstances, declining to follow the manufacturer's portfolio expansion can be a rational business decision rather than a failure to adapt.
Different strategic responses may therefore emerge.
Some distributors will broaden their capabilities, using financial resources and organisational scale to support more technologies and applications.
Others will concentrate on selected product families or market segments, developing specialist expertise and a more focused commercial position.
Some may progressively reduce their involvement in activities where investment requirements, competitive pressure or insufficient margins make continued participation difficult to justify.
These choices do not establish a hierarchy between distribution models.
A specialised regional distributor may retain a stronger position within its chosen market than a larger organisation offering broader but less differentiated services.
Equally, a generalist distributor may create value through logistics efficiency, purchasing power and product availability without developing extensive expertise in every application.
The determining factor is the relationship between the capabilities required, the investments necessary to maintain them and the economic value generated.
Technological diversification may therefore encourage not only broader distribution networks, but also greater specialisation and a more selective allocation of resources within them.
The changing structure of equipment distribution and maintenance also affects refrigerant suppliers.
Their challenge is different, but the underlying economic issue is similar.
As equipment technologies evolve, refrigerant demand may become more concentrated around dominant solutions in certain applications while remaining fragmented across other technologies and the existing installed base.
Both developments have consequences.
Greater concentration can improve purchasing efficiency and inventory turnover, but may also intensify price competition and strengthen the negotiating position of larger customers.
Conversely, fragmented demand may require distributors to maintain a wider variety of products, often in smaller quantities, with additional stock-management, handling and logistics costs.
Specialised demand can create opportunities for higher-value services, but these opportunities depend on whether the additional complexity can be reflected in commercial margins.
The two situations may coexist, particularly during a prolonged technological transition in which new equipment and the existing installed base require different refrigerants.
For refrigerant distributors, the challenge therefore extends beyond anticipating which fluids will gain or lose market share.
It increasingly concerns the economic organisation of supply: balancing product availability, inventory exposure, customer requirements and the cost of maintaining a differentiated portfolio.
Here again, technological diversification does not automatically create additional commercial value.
Its consequences depend on how effectively the distributor can adapt its operating model.
These developments have direct implications for manufacturers developing or restructuring their European distribution networks.
Commercial coverage, established customer relationships and logistical efficiency remain essential selection criteria.
However, they may no longer be sufficient to determine whether a distributor is an appropriate partner for every technology within a manufacturer's portfolio.
A company entering France or Italy with several product families may find that its strongest partner for one application lacks the commercial incentives or technical resources required to develop another.
This does not necessarily justify replacing that partner.
It may instead require a more differentiated distribution architecture, combining complementary operators with distinct commercial and technical responsibilities.
Larger distribution groups, local specialists and application-focused partners may fulfil different functions within the same market.
The manufacturer must determine which capabilities are essential for each application, where they should be located and how the associated investments can be supported.
This also raises the question of how value is shared.
If a distributor is expected to invest in specialised personnel, technical support or inventory to facilitate a manufacturer's expansion, the commercial arrangements must offer a credible prospect of recovering those costs.
Otherwise, extending the manufacturer's product range risks transferring additional responsibilities to distribution partners without creating a sustainable economic basis for fulfilling them.
For distributors, the strategic decision is equally important. Greater technological coverage is not necessarily synonymous with stronger market positioning.
In certain circumstances, specialisation, selective partnerships or a narrower portfolio may provide greater resilience than pursuing every available commercial opportunity.
A useful parallel can be drawn from European banking.
In Italy, the banking reforms of the early 1990s removed many of the restrictions that had previously separated different lending activities, introducing the possibility of universal banking.
Banks gained the freedom to operate beyond their traditional areas of specialisation. Yet broader market access did not eliminate the economic importance of expertise, competitive positioning and the ability to manage different activities profitably.
Universal banking and specialised business models could therefore coexist.
HVAC/R distribution may experience a comparable development, although the forces driving the transition are different.
As manufacturers broaden their technological portfolios, some distributors may successfully expand their activities, while others may find greater economic sustainability in concentrating on selected technologies, applications or customer segments.
The ability to offer a broader product range does not necessarily make broader distribution the most effective business model.
The technological transition may therefore produce not a universally diversified distribution sector, but a more differentiated market in which scale, specialisation and complementary capabilities coexist.
For manufacturers, the strategic challenge is to build distribution networks that reconcile technological ambitions with the economic realities of their partners.
For distributors, it is to identify where their capabilities create sustainable value, rather than assuming that every opportunity for expansion should be pursued.
Ultimately, the future structure of HVAC/R distribution may be determined as much by economic choices as by technological change.